Delhi Elections: Myths and Facts

Reading umpteen interpretations of the Delhi elections amuses me. It is funny and surprising how many prominent writers base their writing on 'opinions' rather than actual facts on the ground. Yes, everybody is entitled to have an opinion. However, if that opinion does not agree with reality, it cannot be published as a fact. Fiction and dreams can make good reads, but publishing them as news is irresponsible to say the least. Democracy critically depends on media to perform fact based, real reporting. Like that is going to happen...

Anyway, let us get to myth busting and fact checking. My favorite 5:

Myth 1: All the people rejected BJP and voted for AAP/ people abandoned BJP due to conduct of the right
Fact: BJP got more number of votes than last election. However, all Congress votes got consolidated behind AAP, thanks to their ground work and freebies. People who were supporting BJP did not abandon the party, if the numbers are correct. However, BJP did a poor job of convincing the swing voter. BJP's Delhi campaign was a disaster.

Myth 2: This is a historical election and India has never seen such results, so now AAP will go national for sure
Fact: Nope, sorry to burst your bubble. Many regional parties have attained similar level of results in the past in India. All of them are still regional parties.

Myth 3: AK's anti-corruption/swaraj/charisma led to AAP victories
Fact: A solid ground work by AAP volunteers, given enough time by a clueless BJP Delhi leadership, gave AK enough intelligence to formulate the right mix of promises. He played the game well, avoided confrontational politics, chose candidates carefully, got support from the Congress vote bank, gathered all enemies of NaMo, and spoke nonsense with confidence. It worked. AK played it well politically, and his tactics were excellent. It has, however, nothing to do with AAP's founding ideology.

Myth 4: AK cannot do anything without Modi's help
Fact: Modi's help would be needed for around 30% of his promises. Nevertheless, Delhi has a budget of INR 40,000 crore and clean govenance is always within reach.

Myth 5: It is ridiculous that AAP has a deputy CM and AK does not take any portfolio
Fact: This could prove immensely useful if AK is targeting Lok Sabha. He needs someone to fill the seat of CM once he takes the national stage, so training Sisodia is good strategy. Plus, not taking any portfolio would enable him to escape any blame and keep his reputation intact. It also gives him more time to build his image and unite NaMo's enemies over the next 5 years.

If Arvind Kejriwal Wins Delhi Elections

Much has been made out of Delhi elections by a desperate opposition, who perhaps see Arvind Kejriwal (AK) as their last hope of trying to put down Narendra Modi. Modi is a juggernaut that will not be stopped as easily, no matter if BJP wins or loses Delhi.

For AK, I personally turned against him when he refused to target Congress in the Lok Sabha and virtually fought on an anti-Modi platform. Plus his simplistic but effective rabble-rousing rhetoric, vote bank politics, and confrontational style of operation seriously put me off to the extent that I named him Kanjriwal. With every day he shifts a little more left to the centre, which I think should set the alarm bells ringing for most sensible people in India; especially given that India’s economy has suffered terribly due to years of left leaning politics. Yet I am amazed, surprised, and impressed by so many of my well-educated and well-meaning friends actively supporting AK. I don’t like AK much, but I do admire his ability to command such a high level of loyalty in such a short amount of time. I am not sure how much of that will stay, but it is good while it lasts.

My assessment is that the only reason AK wants to win Delhi elections is to use it as a grand stage to launch his next Lok Sabha (LS) campaign. Now, that is not necessarily a bad aim. However, given his track record so far, I have every reason to suspect that he would go about it in the worst possible way for the country.

If AK wins the upcoming elections, I predict that he will do everything he can to provoke NaMo. If this is about LS 5 years down the line, we will see an AK obsessed with NaMo. He would take every opportunity to be more than a little confrontational, which would seriously impact his ability to get anything done in Delhi. If anything goes wrong, he will blame NaMo, but will take all the credit for anything that goes right. I seriously expect to see a lot of posturing and very little work happening if he becomes the CM. His in-your-face, in-the-media, on dharna style of working will not work. We will just hear conspiracy theories and see lot of nonsense on TV. All the money would be wasted on populist freebies, with no investment for a permanent positive change. The funny thing is that it will be another major strategic blunder by AAP that may actually seal its fate, albeit at cost of 5 years to Delhi. So far AAP has shown that they are good with tactics. However, I am yet to see a comprehensive sensible strategic decision.

However, if AK decides to listen to people outside his comrades circle, he can take another trajectory as well. He can use the next 5 years to actually do something positive for Delhi, to actually demonstrate his ability to get things done. Sure, he can do his dramas and dharnas to get footage and mileage for LS and irritate the hell out of NaMo. At the same time he needs to work to deliver actual results on the ground. To get in businesses, create actual jobs, reduce corruption, and prevent hooliganism from his own cadre.

I will be extremely happy to be proved wrong. After all even Kejriwal’s assessment of not joining hands with Congress did prove to be wrong in the last polls. You never know, sometimes even a leopard can change his spots. 

Building a Party Constitution

One of the biggest challenge on the road to meritocracy will be building a sustainable organisation/ political party to support this change. Making a rough back of the envelope calculation, I would say the party would need 1 active volunteer for every 100 people in the population, and 1 leader/active participant for every 10 volunteers. Therefore, the core group would be ideally around 1% of the target population. That may appear small, but translates to around 10K active volunteers for a population of 1 million. Based on this, the approximate number of active volunteers & leaders needed to take the movement to a national level for some countries would be as follows:

China:  17.7M volunteers, 2M leaders

India: 12.7M volunteers, 1M leaders

USA:    3.2M volunteers, 300k leaders

Brazil: 2M volunteers, 200k leaders

Russia: 1.5M volunteers, 150k leaders

Japan: 1.3M volunteers, 130k leaders

Germany: 810k volunteers, 80k leaders

France: 660k volunteers, 66k leaders

UK:       640k volunteers, 64k leaders

South Africa: 540k volunteers, 54k leaders

Canada: 360k volunteers, 36k leaders

UAE:      100k volunteers, 10k leaders

Luxembourg: 6K volunteers, 600 leaders

United States Department of Defense, the largest employer in the world, employs 3.2 million people. 

The key point that I am trying to make is that the project would involve building an extremely large organisation, and will be harder for bigger countries. To be sustainable, at the minimum it would need a cohesive ideology that appeals to its members (both emotionally and logically), a suitable organisation structure, an effective fund-raising strategy, an effective succession mechanism, a party constitution, and an effective marketing strategy. 

With this view, I hereby begin the first draft for a sample consitution for a party whose sole motto is the progress of the nation based on the principles of meritocracy. The constitution is a work in progress and I will share it with you once it is in a respectable shape. Please feel free to pitch in your suggestions in the comments below, or just email me.

What's New About What I Say About Meritocracy?

Meritocracy, by any stretch of imagination, is not a new idea as you can learn from this Wikipedia page. Then, how is my contribution different, and why the hell am I spending so much time thinking and writing about it?

Most of the ideas about meritocracy that I have come across mainly focus on the "what" (the wise should rule). There are ways of getting smart people involved in governance structures and administrative services, dating back to ancient China. However, the role of meritocracy is often limited to getting the people but not extended to promoting them or rewarding the right behaviour in the long run. The focus on "how" to enshrine meritocracy as  way of life in a complex human society is missing, and often takes a very idealistic view of human nature. I also think that it does not pay enough attention to making the system "fool-proof" i.e. building in safety mechanisms to prevent degeneration. I hope my work will contribute in the direction of implementing a meritocracy on the ground.

The following writers, in no particular order, have inspired my thoughts: 

Ayn Rand (Atlas Shrugged, The Fountainhead)
Chanakya (Arthashastra)
Niccolo Machiavelli (Discourses on the first decade of Titus Livius, The Prince)
Plato (The Republic)
Robert Greene (48 Laws of Power)
Ronald A Heifetz (Leadership Without Easy Answers)
Sri Sri Ravi Shankar (God Loves Fun, etc.)

I have also relied on the political events that I have witnessed or read about during my own life time and my own experiences. Of course I have used the mighty Google to aid me with my little project :).

मुर्शिद संग रह जाएगा

(Dedicated to H. H. Sri Sri Ravi Shankar)

बस मुर्शिद ही इक डोर है,
नहीं दूसरा कहीं कोई और है,
हर रंग और इक दिन उड़ जाएगा,
बस मुर्शिद संग रह जाएगा

हर रिश्ता सितारों का खेल है,
हर बंधन कुछ लम्हों का मेल है,
इक बस इश्क ही संग तेरे जाएगा
बस मुर्शिद संग रह जाएगा

खेल ज़िन्दगी का खेले 'सवीन',
ख़ुशी, गम सब पाए रंगीन,
इश्क-इश्क करता वो जाएगा,
बस मुर्शिद संग रह जाएगा...

Top 10 things to watch out on path to merit

A governance structure must guard against some pitfalls if it hopes to successfully implement its goals. Human nature is complex, and both simplistic and overly complex solutions can be exploited and subverted. However, with some safeguards it is possible to achieve and sustain progress. Any architect of meritocracy should keep the following in mind to ensure that meritocracy is sustainable:

1. Transparency is paramount for merit to flourish

For most public related issues, the information should be made available online and the processes need to be made transparent. Without transparency conspiracy theories take hold more easily, and people can come to believe that the meritocracy is not genuine. This can be onerous  and difficult without use of technology.

2. Equality of opportunity will sustain meritocracy

The system should be perceived as fair by people. Without equality of opportunity, meritocracy will degenerate into aristocracy, which will defeat the whole purpose of having a meritocracy.  

3. Too much inequality will destroy the social fabric

Inequality is inevitable. However, if 90% of the population is starving and underfed, then there is something seriously wrong with the governance structure. Meritocracy and a strong nation need wider participation of the population in the economy, which can be jeopardised by poverty. They can also become easy targets for communists and theological preachers, both of which can be a serious danger to the integrity of a country.

4. Too much power in too few hands will destroy the country 

Parallel institutions, sometimes even duplicate institutions can be critical to prevent abuse of power. Checks and balances, backed by a strong constitution can do wonders for a nation (even if it can be a bit chaotic).

5.  Right to accuse needs to be protected, but right to slander needs to be checked

It is important for citizens to be able to accuse and argue to forward their point of view. This would strengthen meritocracy and help weed out unwanted elements. However, slander and malicious propaganda can be used to damage reputation, cause needless fear and disgust in population, and weaken the social fabric. The law has to find a balance between encouraging criticism and preventing calumny. 

6. Rights should not come without responsibilities

In a meritocratic state, all rights (including human rights and voting rights) would need to come with a responsibility.

7. Avoid direct confrontation with religion, but side-line and weaken it

People should be free to follow their religious belief, but nation needs to take the front-seat. This would mean peaceful co-existence, complete stop on missionary activities, and a uniform civil code applicable to all. 

8. Nationalism with spirituality will hold meritocracy together

Every ideology needs a glue to hold it together. For meritocracy, nationalism can be an excellent binder. However, to prevent wars and rise of any kind of supremacists, it would need to incorporate certain degree of spirituality as well. I am open to idea, but in experience meditation and breathing techniques are a good, neutral starting point.

9. Do not expect status quo to roll-over and die

If only it was that simple. Do not underestimate the tenacity of vested interests and the dangers of a revolution. Without political power and a police/army firmly under civilian control, the changes will not be permanent. Managing media and a comprehensive communication strategy will be as critical as doing actual work.

10. Results Results Results

Theory and intention is all well, but if there are no concrete, actual results, the whole thing is meaningless and is probably being done wrong.

This is by no means an exhaustive list, but my top 10 nuggets of wisdom to the one who wants to walk the path. May the force be with you ;)

Starting on the Quest for Meritocracy

The implementation of a meritocratic state can begin with a leader supported by a group of individuals with the determination and the ability to implement a meritocratic state. The whole group would need an above average IQ, reasonable success in private life, nationalism, strong control on emotions, spirituality, ability to deal with own ego, and a reasonably good understanding of human nature. A little power hunger will not harm. It would help having experts (e.g. economics, technology, political science, marketing), leaders with practical work experience in their fields. 

While it is always ideal to have things from the "scratch", I am not an advocate of revolution as it is messy. Reform from within will be better for the society as a whole, but may be more difficult to implement due to entrenched vested interests of existing power centres. Nevertheless it is doable if done slowly but surely (boil the frog). Also, since human life is short, it is advisable to focus on the issues that are likely to have maximum impact and leave something for the next generation.

The ultimate aim would be political/legal/constitutional changes that institutionalise meritocracy. This is the only way to make meritocracy permanent. Economy and education are the primary tools to both work towards it and strengthen it.  However, before that can happen, to first gain traction the team needs to first work at the grass root level. 

This can begin with identify and solving key local problems, and then marketing the success. Consider the following two steps to identify problems to solve:

1. Zero down on a few key issues likely to lead to positive press for meritocracy (4 at most)
Meritocracy is not an established system. To start with, it needs to be in the press and recognised for its excellent results. In the beginning, it is advisable to focus on issues that are easy to market, popular, and doable. This is about picking battles big enough to matter and small enough to win, and important for at least 25% of the population. Surveys and reports, backed by information gained by working amidst people, should help in this. 

2. Analyse the identified issues and zero down on one to target
Consider team resources and expertise, ask for public opinion to identify pain points and possible improvements, analyse short-comings of current system, and prepare a plan of action.

In the beginning, it is advisable to not upset any existing power centres as far as possible. Ultimately they are going to get upset, but the later we upset them the lesser obstacles we would face in implementing our plans. 

In initial years, the aim should be to cultivate image of efficiency, integrity, and no-nonsense to demonstrate the capability of meritocracy. For this the team will have to both do the work and communicate it effectively to people. Get youth involved, use street plays, harness social media, conduct seminars/ talks, organise public/visible debates, create sponsorships for the best and the brightest. In short, get the word out there and back it up with actual, tangible results.

The ultimate aim is to enter the political sphere and change the way things are run. Therefore the core team would need to develop grass root level of cadres and work intensively amidst people: travelling, listening to their problems and aspirations, where possible helping them with their issues, vociferously highlighting identified public problems, and learning about the society. To begin with, for minimum resistance, the team should target an area that is:

• reasonably prosperous and eager to boost its economic dominance; or 
• sufficiently economically desperate and eager to turn-around its fortune. 

The areas with following characteristics could be very challenging and are best tackled at later stages:

• strong religious or caste based influence
• severely affected by militant/terrorist activity
• strong influence of Communism

The group should also create a fund-raising plan and involve industrialists in their plans to ensure adequate financing.

These key steps should help the team to lay down the foundation for a meritocracy.