My take on the current demonetisation situation:
1. In current political climate it is suicidal to accept that you have made a mistake. BJP government will therefore not admit to any failings. Nevertheless, the implementation and benefits at this stage are unlikely to exceed the costs from current point of view.
2. Let this be a lesson for all leaders who think revolutionary changes are cool/ they can change a large entrenched, rotten system overnight with few, big moves. Ideas of Arthkranti (the guys who gave this idea to Modi), while appealing on paper, have no historical precedence of actually working. Changes need to be incremental, systematic and well thought of. Disruption is not always good and change is always slow & painful.
3. Modi has seriously underestimated the will of 97% people to evade taxes and stay out of the system by any means possible. It is not easy to seek people's direct cooperation to act against their self-interest, even if the move benefits the whole society.
4. If Modi wants to salvage the situation, he can use the chaos and confusion created by this move to push through serious reforms to tackle root problems. Tax raids, pushing digital transactions, stronger anti-tax evasion rules and marginal tax on gold to enable tracking gold transactions are steps in the right direction. Bringing in the right to service act as envisioned by Dr JP + continual shift towards e-governance will stem more corruption than demonetisation.
5. It is time to bring in laws to prevent disruption of Parliament
6. I still support Modi as I see him as a leader who intends to change the system for good. I have not seen any alternative leadership that I could trust more. I would happily support any national leader who offers a constructive, reasonable intelligent plan and a leadership and is capable of forming a stable government at the centre.
7. The only people who make mistakes are the ones who try to do something. Nevertheless history rewards only success, as highway to hell is often paved with good intentions. Modi may do well to remember this.
