Technology, Design or Something Else?

I recently came across a blog discussing the importance of technology vs design for a product. I beleive that such discussions show how living in one particular domain can seriously hamper the breadth of vision. Like the classic blind men interpreting the elephant in different ways, each person tends to interpret his or her interpretation as the most important one. When you are talking about a product, you are talking about business. And business is a sum of parts. Nevertheless, from business point of view, elements like marketing, service and reach will always dominate either technology or design. Technology and design have to pass a minimum threshold. Beyond that the client retention and longevity of a business is too deeply dependent on the above mentioned key factors. A business is made by the people who run it, who have a vision to find innovative use of design or technology.

Not many engineers or designers go on to become the CEO of a company (unless they start their own company or get business education). This is not a co-incident. Technology and design functions require lesser people management than most other functions. They are also, generally, least political. To research and to simply come up with ideas is not enough. The ability to find practical uses for the ideas, to be able to take them to people profitably, manage people and then sustain the process reliably over a significant duration defines business. Any successful entrepreneur can tell you that technology or design is but a small, though important, part of the whole equation.

Motorcycle Sales

The following appeared as part of an article in the business section of a local newspaper:

"Motorcycle X has been manufactured in the United States for more than 70 years. Although one foreign company has copied the motorcycle and is selling it for less, the company has failed to attract motorcycle X customers - some say because its product lacks the exceptionally loud noise made by motorcycle X. But there must be some other explanation. After all, foreign cars tend to be quieter than similar American-made cars, but they sell at least as well. Also, television advertisements for motorcycle X highlight its durability and sleek lines, not its noisiness, and the ads typically have voice-overs or rock music rather than engine-roar on the sound track."

Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.

The presented article speculates about the reasons behind the success of motorcycle X, despite it being copied by some foreign company. This is speculated to be because of the exceptionally loud noise made by the motorcycle. However, even though the article tries to find alternative explanation, it goes ahead to reason based on the premise that its speculation is,in fact, correct. Further, it tries to compare the sales of indigenous cars to foreign cars, completely ignoring the fact that the foreign cars are not necessarily a copy of American cars. Neither does it take into account any differences between the target audience for cars and motorcycles.

Initially the article tries to articulate a reason behind the success of motorcycle X in face of it being copied and sold at a lower price by a foreign company. The reason is said to be the exceptionally loud noise made by the motorcycle by some of the users. By the article's own admission, it is the viewpoint of some and not all (or even most, for that matter). The source of the data is not clear and hence the certainty attached with it is not warranted. To its credit, the article does cast a doubt on reason and states an intention to look for an alternative explanation. To its discredit, it goes on to base the argument on the reason that itself put to doubt, hence basing the examples and arguments around noise. By doing this it also completely fails to explore an alternative reasons (like better quality or brand value) behind the sales.

Further, the comparison used to illustrate the point is invalid as it does not address the same situation: foreign cars are not necessarily a copy of American cars. The foreign motorcycle, on the other hand, is a direct copy of its American counterpart. When motorcycles look essentially same, the end-user can compare everything feature-by-feature easily. Moreover, the target audience would also be similar. For cars the choice may not be that easy with the given parameters. Comparing a Mercedes to a Hummer or a Porsche is simply not possible as they are three different genres of cars. The choice may depend on if the person wants a luxury car, a land rover or a sports car rather than any other feature.

Finally, the article does not take into account the difference in expectations of a motorcycle buyer and a car buyer. While it is possible that a motorcycle buyer may be looking for brash, youthful, loud vehicle; a car buyer may be looking for a luxury vehicle as a status symbol. Since they may not be looking for the same thing, equating their buyer expectations may not lead to correct results.

Concluding, the presented article is logically flawed on many counts. In order to appear stronger, it needs to at least present a more relevant analogy besides actually exploring reasons behind success of motorcycle X. Otherwise it risks appearing poorly reasoned, hypothetical and incomplete.

A Language Course

The following appeared in an article in a college departmental newsletter:

"Professor Taylor of Jones University is promoting a model of foreign language instruction in which students receive 10 weeks of intensive training, then go abroad to live with families for 10 weeks. The superiority of the model, Professor Taylor contends, is proved by the results of a study in which foreign language tests given to students at 25 other colleges show that first-year foreign language students at Jones speak more fluently after only 10 to 20 weeks in the program than do nine out of 10 foreign language majors elsewhere at the time of their graduation."

Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.

The presented article aims to promote a model of foreign language instruction. It tries to achieve this by presenting the results of a study. However, it fails to talk about either the source or the methodology of the study. It also fails to address possible cost-handicaps associated with a course that involves living abroad for 10 weeks. 

The cornerstone of the reasoning is the result of the study conducted. Hence, it is extremely important to know how effective and authentic the study is as strength of the study will essentially determine the strength of the argument. If it was conducted by Jones University, its neutrality is questionable as the tests may have been designed to favor its own students. On the other hand, if the study was conducted by a neutral third-party, it would make the study highly credible.

Further, the background of students chosen for the test is also important to know. If they had a reasonable level even before they started the course, it would be unfair to compare them to students who were absolutely new to the language. The level of students on which the study was conducted has to be at a reasonably same level for the study to be credible.

Finally, the proposed programme involves staying abroad for 10 weeks. This may make the programme prohibitively expensive when compared to other programmes. A proper cost analysis is important to determine how much more a student may need to spend to complete the programme and whether such an investment is warranted. Sending students abroad may be a good way to teach them, but they should be able to afford to do it as well.

Concluding, the presented reasoning is flawed in some ways. In fact, it looks like a marketing gimmick undertaken by Jones University to promote its course. If Professor Taylor wants the article to be credible, he can do so by clarifying the source and the methodology of the study and whether his programme would inflate tuition cost significantly. Barring, all prospective students should take the presented arguments with a pinch of salt.

Improving University

The following appeared as part of a recommendation from the financial planning office to the administration of Fern Valley University:

"In the past few years, Fern Valley University has suffered from a decline in both enrollments and admissions applications. The reason can be discovered from our students, who most often cite poor teaching and inadequate library resources as their chief sources of dissatisfaction with Fern Valley. Therefore, in order to increase the number of students attending our university, and hence to regain our position as the most prestigious university in the greater Fern Valley metropolitan area, it is necessary to initiate a fund-raising campaign among the alumni that will enable us to expand the range of subjects we teach and to increase the size of our library facilities."

Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.

The recommendation traces the cause of decline in the number of enrollments and admission applications to the feedback from students that the university has poor standards of teaching and inadequate library resource. This methodology relies on current students rather than prospective students, while the suggested solutions are meant to attract new students rather than improving the "learning" experience of the current students. Further, only one method of fund-raising has been cited;there is no reason to simply believe that it would indeed be the best method. Finally, it is not clear that how increasing the number of subjects taught may lead to better teaching.

It is clear that the Fern Valley wishes to attract more students and re-vamp its brand image. Although the existing students may be able to tell the failings that they have experienced first hand while studying, such issues may not be obvious to people seeking fresh admissions. Hence, a survey that takes account of why students did not choose Fern Valley University may give a more useful insight into the university's perceived weaknesses. Similarly, a survey about the reason why the currently enrolled students chose the university may be helpful in understanding what prospective students look for in a University. Understanding current students' grievances may also help in the long run, but it is in no way a comprehensive set of data on which the university may base its plan of action.

Further, initiating a fund-raising campaign among the alumni is the method proposed to raise funds. Although credible, the reasoning neither attempts to explore alternative ways of raising funds, nor does it specify if the proposed method would be able to generate enough money in time. Why wouldn't it be better to raise money from, say, Government funds for education, educational charities, donations from trustees or some form of financial re-structuring? I feel a proper analysis of each method should be done so as the most reliable and cheap method is recommended.

Finally, it is implied that expanding the range of subjects taught will be able to address poor teaching. The logic behind the correlation is baffling. Is it hoped that simply increasing the number of subjects would lead to a miraculous improvement in teaching standards? In order to address poor teaching the university may need to recruit better teachers, train existing staff, get better teaching equipment and use new media, like computers and videos, in order to enhance the teaching experience. How increasing the number of subjects alone will improve the teaching is not clear at all.

Concluding, the presented recommendation is flawed on many counts. It uses insufficient data to derive arguably faulty conclusions. It also fails to explore alternative ways of raising funds and hence does not logically support the suggested method. Not only that, even one of the recommendations to address the ill-founded conclusions does not correlate convincingly with the deduced problem.  

Environmental Credit Plan

The following appeared as part of a plan proposed by an executive of the Easy Credit Company to the president:

"The Easy Credit Company would gain an advantage over competing credit card services if we were to donate a portion of the proceeds from the use of our cards to a well-known environmental organization in exchange for the use of its symbol or logo on our card. Since a recent poll shows that a large percentage of the public is concerned about environmental issues, this policy would attract new customers, increase use among existing customers, and enable us to charge interest rates that are higher than the lowest ones available."

Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.

The proposed plan aims to help Easy Credit Company in gaining an advantage over competing credit card services by donating a portion of the proceeds from the use of the company's cards to a well-known environmental organization in exchange for the use of its symbol or logo on the company's cards. This argument is essentially based on a survey. The source of this survey, however, has not been made clear- putting into doubt the authenticity of the survey. The argument also assumes that the measure will not only attract new customers, it will also increase card usage and allow Easy Credit to charge higher interest rates. In the process, it completely fails to  cite the reason why people would increase usage of the cards or if higher interest rates may actually prove counter-productive by having unintended consequences. 

Taking the issues one at a time, the first in line is the survey that is the cornerstone of the whole argument. The credibility of the survey depends a lot upon the organization that conducted it and the methodology employed to achieve the same. If the survey was sponsored by the "well-known" environmental organization, the neutrality of the survey may be seriously questionable. On the other hand, a survey by a neutral, well-known third party may prove to be extremely credible.

Secondly, even though it may be fair to assume that such a policy may bring in some new customers, one is left to wonder how it would increase card usage? Can a company's policy change cause its customer to become a bit more reckless with their finances? Possibly: nothing is impossible. Nevertheless, it may help if the plan establishes the basis of this assumption more clearly: did people who said that they are concerned about environmental changes also asserted that they would not only support environment friendly products but will also increase usage and put up with incompetent interest rates? May be not.

This brings us to the assumption that this policy would allow the company to bring in new customers  and over-charge them as well.  A lot of current customers, who may not be that environmentally sensitive, may be lost to competition if such a change was made; such customers would not even have a far-fetched incentive to either increase usage or put with high rates. The resulting loss  of competitiveness and revenues has not been factored in the argument. Hence, The assumption is not only ungrounded, it also assumes that such an action would not have any unintended consequences.

Concluding, the presented plan is logically flawed on many counts. Before implementing it, the management should try to find more about the survey and examine if the suggested measures would indeed result in a competitive advantage. If implemented as it is, the plan risks loosing revenue and current customers in hope of winning more revenue and new customers.

Saving Environment

The following appeared in an editorial from a magazine produced by an organization dedicated to environmental protection:

"In order to effectively reduce the amount of environmental damage that industrial manufacturing plants cause, those who manage the plants must be aware of the specific amount and types of damage caused by each of their various manufacturing processes. However, few corporations have enough financial incentive to monitor this information. In order to guarantee that corporations reduce the damage caused by their plants, the federal government should require every corporation to produce detailed annual reports on the environmental impact of their manufacturing process, and the government should impose stiff financial penalties for failure to produce these reports."

Discuss how well reasoned . . .etc.

The presented editorial is logically flawed on many counts.

Primarily, the central assumption, that making managers aware about the pollution caused by manufacturing process can effectively reduce environmental damage, does not even attempt to establish the basis of its authenticity. Was there any survey by a neutral third-party that establishes this fact? Are there any strong environmental laws that can hold managers to account for knowingly polluting environment? Or is it simply the editor's personal view? Without establishing a clear cause-effect relationship, it appears to be an arbitrary assertion.

Further, the argument also assumes that there are no other possible ways to achieve the same goal. It may be possible to achieve the same by introducing tougher environmental laws, scheduling regular inspections, or by giving incentives to industries to switch to more environment friendly manufacturing methods. The reasoning neither tries to explore alternative solutions nor tries to explain why the chosen line of action is better. 

Finally, even if we concede that the assumption is right and a good way to achieve the desired goal, the way of implementing it is still questionable. While imposing stiff penalties may work, it is not necessarily the best way to provide financial incentives. Financial incentives can also be provided by giving tax breaks or government subsidies. It is not clear why imposing penalties is a better way. 

Concluding, on the whole the editorial appears to be more of an opinion rather than a well reasoned argument. Based on an arguably arbitrary assumption it goes on to reason that the government should impose stiff financial penalties for failure to produce some reports, the benefits of which are not clear. Although the intentions of the editorial may be good, the reasoning is definitely not. While taking note of its concerns, a more well thought course of action may be pursued to achieve the desired goals.

A Faulty Business Plan

The following is part of a business plan being discussed at a board meeting of the Perks Company:

"It is no longer cost-effective for the Perks Company to continue offering its employees a generous package of benefits and incentives year after year. In periods when national unemployment rates are low, Perks may need to offer such a package in order to attract and keep good employees, but since national unemployment rates are now high, Perks does not need to offer the same benefits and incentives. The money thus saved could be better used to replace the existing plant machinery with more technologically sophisticated equipment, or even to build an additional plant."

Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.

The reasoning behind the presented business plan is flawed on many counts.

The business plan presumes that it is no longer cost-effective for the Perks company to continue offering its employees a generous package of benefits and incentives year after year. The basis of this statement (high unemployment rate) is neither strong nor clear. If employees loose motivation due to package cuts and,hence, do not perform well, the proposal may not prove to be very cost-effective. In fact, it could cost the company more than it would save. A high unemployment rate not necessarily prevents dissatisfied employees from not working hard.

It can be further said that the stated correlation between national unemployment rates and employee packages may or may not be true. 

Firstly, a general high unemployment does not mean high unemployment in all sectors. For example, only the auto sector may be doing bad causing an exceptionally high number of lay-offs but the finance sector may be doing good and still hiring aggressively. Hence, the company needs to look at the data more closely and verify that indeed it is relevant to their sector. 

Secondly, the higher rate of unemployment may be specific to a particular type of employees rather than to all employees. For example, if a market has too many engineers, it is possible that many of them are unemployed due to large supply. But if,say, there were too few accountants, their demand would still be high. Hence, by taking a blanket approach the business plan actually risks alienating employees that may have specialized skills that are in demand. This, in turn, may lead to a "brain drain" from the company with many talented individuals leaving for good.

Finally, the plan assumes that there are no alternative ways of financing additional equipment and plants. The company could pay less dividend, cut wasteful expenditures or pay it top brass a little less bonus. Why or how the suggested course of action is superior to other alternatives has not been discussed.

Concluding, the business plan appears short-sighted and weakly reasoned. It tries to take a generalist approach without bothering with details or reasons that could explain the basis or show the strength of the logic employed. Clearly, if implemented as it is, the plan would surely alienate some employees and may even cause loss to the company. The board should not pass this plan and should instead press for a better plan that explores various alternatives and presents stronger reasoning .

Choosing Ambulance Service

The following appeared in the editorial section of a West Cambria newspaper:

"A recent review of the West Cambria volunteer ambulance service revealed a longer average response time to accidents than was reported by a commercial ambulance squad located in East Cambria. In order to provide better patient care for accident victims and to raise revenue for our town by collecting service fees for ambulance use, we should disband our volunteer service and hire a commercial ambulance service."

Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.

The presented editorial is logically weak and flawed on many counts.

The first doubt that comes to the mind is about the alleged review that is the cornerstone of the argument. It has not been specified what is the source of the quoted review and how it was conducted. If the review was sponsored by commercial ambulance companies, the neutrality of the assertions would be highly questionable. On the other hand, if it has been conducted fairly by a neutral agency, one may give some weightage to it.

Secondly, it is implied that commercial ambulance service would definitely improve the service. The editorial conveniently forgets that if the volunteer ambulance service is disbanded, it would increase the volume of calls that the commercial service would have to handle. Whether the commercial services have the infrastructure to handle it is not clear. 

Thirdly, it is even possible that volunteer ambulance services take more time only because they get a high volume of calls. Hence, the claim that a longer average time necessarily means bad service on part of volunteer ambulances is not necessarily true.

Finally, it is not clear if the commercial services would gladly handle emergency services in case of a road disaster or fire when they may not get paid. Would they demand money from a man bleeding to death in a road accident or first drop him to the hospital? It is not clear how effectively they would be able to replace free services provided by volunteer ambulances and if people would even want such a service. 

Concluding, the reasoning is weak and cannot be taken on face value. The source of data used to derive the conclusion has not been quoted and many questions have been left unanswered. The editorial seems to be handiwork of commercial ambulance service providers who wish to discredit the volunteer services and get them out of the way.  

Cola Vs Coffee

The following appeared as part of the business plan of an investment and financial consulting firm:

"Studies suggest that an average coffee drinker’s consumption of coffee increases with age, from age 10 through age 60. Even after age 60, coffee consumption remains high. The average cola drinker’s consumption of cola, however, declines with increasing age. Both of these trends have remained stable for the past 40 years. Given that the number of older adults will significantly increase as the population ages over the next 20 years, it follows that the demand for coffee will increase and the demand for cola will decrease during this period. We should, therefore, consider transferring our investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee."

Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.

The presented business plan is unconvincing and logically flawed on many counts.

The first doubt that comes to mind is about the "studies" referred to assert that while a coffee drinker's consumption of coffee increases with age, that of a cola drinker declines over time. The  accuracy and reliability of the study depends on the neutrality of the organization that conducted it and the quality of methods employed to collect data. Until the plan does not specify the source explicitly, taking the data on face value is not advisable.

The second doubt is cast by the assertion that the number of older adults will significantly increase as the population ages over the next 20 years. This may or may not be true and will be determined by the birth-rate. The plan does not mention the basis of this assertion. It is not clear if it is simply the writer's hunch or based upon some concrete demographic statistics.

Thirdly, the plan does not take into consideration if cola may be popular in other age groups and the quantity of cola consumed. If the birth-rate of the country is high or cola is consumed in more quantity than coffee even when fewer people drink it, the demand of coffee will not necessarily increase. Again. without concrete and reliable demographic statistics and without taking into consideration the relative quantity consumed by each user, it is difficult to ascertain demand for which beverage would fall in the coming 20 years.

Finally, the projection assumes that people's drinking patterns will remain consistent over the next 20 years. It is possible that people may switch to some third beverage like green tea or fruit juices. That would make investment in either cola or coffee equally useless. It seems that the writer assumes that people would always have either coffee or cola to choose from.

Concluding, the business plan is quite narrow in scope and based on questionable data. It would be ill-advised to follow and act on it without chalking out the details and plugging the evident gaps in reasoning.  

Bad Investment Advice

The following appeared in a newspaper story giving advice about investments:

"As overall life expectancy continues to rise, the population of our country is growing increasingly older. For example, more than 20 percent of the residents of one of our more populated regions are now at least 65 years old, and occupancy rates at resort hotels in that region declined significantly during the past six months. Because of these two related trends, a prudent investor would be well advised to sell interest in hotels and invest in hospitals and nursing homes instead."

Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.

The presented investment advice is logically flawed on many counts.

The most basic flaw is an attempt to correlate two unrelated pieces of information. On one hand, we have the percentage of people at least 65 years old in some part of the country. On the other hand, we have occupancy rates at resort hotels over a short period of time. It is implied that the demographics are responsible for fall in occupancy rates: this is not necessarily true. The rates could have fallen over 6 months due to end of tourist season in the area, falling standard of hotel resorts or a sudden increase in crime rate. Without more data it is difficult to say what really caused the decline. 

In fact, it is fairly reasonable to expect that tourists and not locals would constitute the key customers of the resort. If that is true, local demographics may not have much bearing on the occupancy rates at all. Even if one assumes that locals are the key customers, old people constitute only around 20% of the population. Absence of their patronage alone may explain a small fall but would still fail to explain the reported significant drop in the occupancy rates. Moreover, is it reasonable to assume that old people do not go to resorts? The fact that the newspaper story makes such strong statements without backing them with any concrete data is surprising.

The story does not stop here, it further goes on to assume that old people in the region not only do not go to resorts, they also remain sick. The basis of such a dire assumption is,yet again, not clear. If people in the region are old but healthy, how would investing in hospitals and nursing homes prove beneficial to anyone? 

Concluding, the given advice is seriously flawed and circumspect. The advisor has clearly built a castle in the air and God only help anybody who takes this advice. All investors should be wary of following it until it is backed by a study that can verify its far-fetched claims.

Organic Vs Synthetic Farming

The following was excerpted from the speech of a spokesperson for Synthetic Farm Products, Inc.:

"Many farmers who invested in the equipment needed to make the switch from synthetic to organic fertilizers and pesticides feel that it would be too expensive to resume synthetic farming at this point. But studies of farmers who switched to organic farming last year indicate that their current crop yields are lower. Hence their purchase of organic farming equipment, a relatively minor investment compared to the losses that would result from continued lower crop yields, cannot justify persisting on an unwise course. And the choice to farm organically is financially unwise, given that it was motivated by environmental rather than economic concerns."

Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc

The presented speech's reasoning is flawed on many counts.

A study has been cited to drive home the point that organic farming gives lower yield than synthetic farming. However, the source of the study has not been mentioned. If it was conducted by Synthetic Farm Products Inc., the chances of it being fair and unbiased are pretty low. On the other hand, if it was conducted by a neutral agency, one may take it seriously. Making the source of study clear would make the reasoning more credible.

Further, the speech tries to encourage farmers to switch to synthetic farming by claiming that the money wasted in buying equipment for organic farming is peanuts compared to losses that would result from continued lower crop yield. Again, it is not clear how much lower the yield from organic farming is. Will the "extra" yield pay for the loss in 5 years or 50 years? There is no way to know. The argument also fails to take into account the money that would be spent in buying new equipment for synthetic farming. Unless and until the difference in yield is quite significant, this argument does not hold true.

Finally the spokesperson has tried to label organic farming as a financially unwise decision due to low yield. This is highly questionable. Besides the point that the yield difference may not be significant, it is possible that the market is ready to pay a premium price for organic food. It also does not take into account the adverse effect synthetic farming may have on the soil as it is not environment friendly and hence negatively affect the yield in future. Considering these factors, organic farming may indeed be a better financial decision than synthetic farming.

Concluding, the speech's logical reasoning looks like a sales pitch devoid of any merit or good reasoning. It mentions a study but conveniently forgets to mention the source, ignores costs associated with buying equipment for synthetic farming, brushes asides environmental concerns and ignores the fact that market may be willing to pay more for organic products. No farmer should trust this reasoning on face value to switch to synthetic farming.

Increasing Bus Shuttle Volume

The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper:

"Commuter use of the new subway train is exceeding the transit company’s projections. However, commuter use of the shuttle buses that transport people to the subway stations is below the projected volume. If the transit company expects commuters to ride the shuttle buses to the subway rather than drive there, it must either reduce the shuttle bus fares or increase the price of parking at the subway stations."

Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.

The editorial suggests two alternatives to help the transit company to increase the number of people who ride shuttle buses to the subway station instead of driving there. The reasoning is flawed on many counts.

One of the assumptions is that people do not use the shuttle buses because they find the bus fares exorbitant. This may or may not be true. It is possible that the bus services run infrequently, are not punctual and are not well maintained. In that case lowering fares would not help. The basis of this assumption is not clear. If the editorial clarifies that, the argument will be strengthened.

The editorial also attributes low usage of shuttle buses to people finding it more convenient and cheap to drive to the station and park their vehicle. This reasoning assumes that there are no alternative parking space near the subway. Even if the transit company increases parking prices, it will have no effect if cheaper, alternative parking was available nearby. The reasoning also implies that all people come from far enough distance. There can be a huge volume of people who live nearby and hence either cycle or walk to the station. In that case, no solution would help. In fact, it would put in question the very need of shuttle buses!

Concluding, the presented argument is plausible but not entirely convincing. It fails to establish the basis of its two key assumptions and does not explore alternative solutions. Moreover, since the reasons behind the problem have not been explored fully, the suggested solutions are also limited in scope. For example, solutions could have included a marketing campaign to make people aware about the benefits of using public transport or the improvement of services, depending on what the real problem is. Hence, the reasoning is weak and merits further investigation.  

Violence and Movies

The following appeared in a newspaper editorial:

"As violence in movies increases, so do crime rates in our cities. To combat this problem we must establish a board to censor certain movies, or we must limit admission to persons over 21 years of age. Apparently our legislators are not concerned about this issue since a bill calling for such actions recently failed to receive a majority vote."

Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.

The argument presented in the editorial is flawed on many counts.

The most basic flaw in the argument is that it attributes the increase in crime rates in the cities directly to the increase in violence in the movies. Such a comparison is ill-founded due to several reasons. Firstly, it is not clear that on what basis the editor has established such a correlation. Is it based on some survey undertaken by a neutral, unbiased agency of repute or is it simple, pure prejudice on the part of the editor? There is no way to know. Secondly, there can be many reasons behind increase in crime rate. It could be due to a low police-to-citizen ratio, powerful and organized local gangs, lack of strict laws to punish law offenders, high unemployment, abject poverty or state neglect. Blaming movies alone without any concrete basis seems to be too far-fetched and unreasonable.

Further, rating boards have been established in various countries and limits have been put on limiting admission to persons over a particular age  limit; there is nothing new about the suggestion. However, it is not clear why legislators rejected such a legislation. The rejection has been attributed to apathy, but the basis for this opinion is not stated. It again looks like a prejudiced opinion rather than any kind of reasoning. It is possible that the introduced bill encroached people's freedom to see the movies in an undesirable way. In that case it would be reasonable to expect its rejection due to concern and not apathy.

Finally, it seems that the editor sees legislation as the only way to curb crime rate (or stop people from seeing violent movies!). Other ways to achieve the same have not been explored. 

Concluding, the presented argument seems more opinionated than reasonable; the tone seems emotional, attacking and prejudiced. Until the editor clarifies the basis of attributing increase of crime rate to increase in violence in movies, presents alternative ways to achieve the same results and clearly states why, in his opinion, the reasons behind the rejection of the bill are pure apathy, the argument will remain weak and flawed.

Using Insider Information

The following appeared in a memorandum from a member of a financial management and consulting firm:

"We have learned from an employee of Windfall, Ltd., that its accounting department, by checking about 10 percent of the last month’s purchasing invoices for errors and inconsistencies, saved the company some $10,000 in overpayments. In order to help our clients increase their net gains, we should advise each of them to institute a policy of checking all purchasing invoices for errors. Such a recommendation could also help us get the Windfall account by demonstrating to Windfall the rigorousness of our methods."

Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.

The reasoning above has many flaws in it and cannot be taken on face value.

The first flaw is that the argument does not say much about the mystery employee of Windfall Ltd. who gave the insider information. It is not clear how reliable the source is and how the information was obtained. If the information was obtained by bribing or threat, such an act would not only be unethical, it could also land the company in legal trouble. Unless the argument covers this aspect, it is risky to accept it.

The second flaw is the assumption that all the clients would be as careless with their invoices as Windfall Ltd was. Though it is possible, it is not necessary. A more prudent approach would be to check the client invoices to see if such a problem exists and then suggest the concerned client. Making a blanket recommendation to all clients may or may not prove to be useful. In fact, if the clients don't find it useful they would see the suggestion as a useless advice that just increased their work. 

Lastly, the idea of advising Windfall Ltd. to do something that they are already doing and then hoping to get the Windfall account is counter-intuitive. Why would Windfall appreciate a recommendation that they already know? Most probably they have been implementing it much before the firm even thought of recommending it to them. A new idea would, perhaps, interest Windfall. Not something that they already know.

Concluding, the argument has many flaws and that makes it difficult for anyone reading it to agree with it. The concerned financial management and consulting firm should take the advice given in the memorandum with a pinch of salt. The argument can be considered only if it gives more details about the source, revises its strategy to give a blanket recommendation to all clients and tries to win the Windfall account on the strength of a new idea.

Reucing Price to Increase Sales

Davis Technologies, a computer-chip maker, could solve its problem of declining sales by dropping its prices. This would make Davis better able to compete in the highly competitive computer chip market. The sales of chips would increase and this would substantially boost Davis' market share.

Describe how well reasoned etc.

Even though the above position may appear reasonable on the first look, it has some loopholes that will become more evident as we discuss them.

The major flaw in the reasoning is that it assumes that the only reason behind the company's declining sales of computer chips is a high product price. On this basis, it asserts that Davis Technologies will be able to solve its problem of declining sales and boost its market share by dropping its prices.  This is not necessarily true as sales can be driven down by many factors. It is possible that the chip manufacturing quality controls of the company have been lax, leading to production of sub-standard computer chips. This, in turn, may be the reason behind the drop in sales. In that case dropping prices would not help the company in any way. Similarly, there can be other factors like a general recession, sub-standard  marketing effort or technically inferior chips (compared to those produced by competitors). There is no way to know for sure if high price is indeed the only problem. Hence,  until the statement clearly establishes in some way that it has taken into consideration all factors before establishing high costs as the real reason, this statement cannot be taken as accurate.

Moreover, reducing prices is not the only way to compete in a highly competitive market. The same can be achieved by strong achievements in manufacturing technology, commitment towards research and development, well-thought marketing planning and an excellent customer service. The statement offers no reason why slashing prices is the only way to become competitive.

Concluding, the presented statement is unconvincing and hence appears inaccurate. There is no way that just reducing prices would arrest declining sales, make the company competitive and win a substantial market share. The real action would have to be much more well-thought. Nevertheless, the argument can be made a bit plausible if it establishes that it found high price the only reason behind all the company's problems after considering all the concerned factors .

Internet Advertising

The following was used as part of an internet advertising company's appeal to businesses: Furniture Depot employed our internet advertising company to help. Since then its sales increased by 10% over last year's totals. Furniture Depot's success demonstrates how using our internet services can increase your profitability.

Describe how well reasoned you find this argument...

The argument asserts that Furniture Depot was able to increase its sales by 10% by using the advertisement company's services. Although the argument looks convincing on the first look, it has some loopholes.

The first flaw is the assumption that Furniture Depot did not use any other medium to advertise except internet. A business can advertise in magazines, newspapers, billboards, radio, pamphlets and television channels besides internet. It is also possible that it was just the concerned company's excellent services which led to a positive word-of-mouth and corresponding increase in sales. It is not clear if the concerned company employed only internet or a combination of a wide array of mediums to achieve the increase in sales.

Hence, the argument can be made substantially stronger if it mentions that Furniture Depot advertised on internet only. Alternatively, if a combination of mediums was used, the argument must state the contribution of internet advertising to the revenue instead of crediting it with the entire increase.

Another flaw is that even if we assume that internet advertisement was solely responsible for the 10% growth, it is possible that the advertising company is serving advertisements only on furniture related websites . This may have helped the Furniture Depot to increase its sales, and may even prove helpful to other furniture-based companies. Nevertheless, other businesses may not benefit much from such an arrangement. In order to make the argument more comprehensive, it would be prudent for it to mention if the advertisements are context specific or focus only on a particular industry.

Concluding, the presented argument is plausible but has some flaws. In fact, it can be made stronger if it clearly states that the sales growth was a result of internet advertisement only and that it has the capability to target other business sectors besides furniture.

City and State

The following appeared as part of an article in a magazine on lifestyles:

"Two years ago, City L was listed 14th in an annual survey that ranks cities according to the quality of life that can be enjoyed by those living in them. This information will enable people who are moving to the state in which City L is located to confidently identify one place, at least, where schools are good, housing is affordable, people are friendly, the environment is safe, and the arts flourish."

Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.

The article asserts that people moving to the state in which city L is located would be able to confidently identify at least one place where schools are good, housing is affordable, people are friendly, the environment is safe, and the arts flourish. The fact that City L was listed 14th in an annual survey that ranks cities according to the quality of life that can be enjoyed in them is presented as an evidence for the same. The reasoning is flawed on many counts.

The first and the most significant logical flaw is the attempt to super-impose results for one city on the whole state. The fact that one city in the state is ranked 14 in some annual survey does not necessarily make the entire state as good as the city. Perhaps, it is the only city in the whole state that is any good! Unless and until the reasoning plugs in this gap by mentioning that the majority of cities in the state are modelled around city L, the reasoning cannot appear strong. It needs to state categorically what makes it believe that the entire state would be as good as the city.

Another weak point is the fact that the methodology of the survey is not clear, i.e. it is not clear what factors are taken into consideration to arrive at the ranking. It is indirectly implied that the survey takes into account good schooling, affordable housing, friendly people, safe environment and flourishing arts. Nevertheless, it is not stated clearly if it is indeed so. Mentioning such a correlation would strengthen the argument.

Finally, the body that conducted the survey has not been mentioned. This tends to dent the credibility of the survey as it may have been undertaken by some shoddy and biased agency. If the article mentions who conducted the survey, it would add credibility to the argument.

Concluding, the argument is weak and flawed. Nevertheless it can be made stronger if the article can justify the basis of super-imposing the result of one city on the whole state. In fact, it can add further strength to the argument if it gives the source of the survey and clearly mentions the various factors taken into consideration to arrive at the stated rankings.

Improving Customer Service

The following appeared in a memo from the customer service division to the manager of Mammon Savings and Loan:

"We believe that improved customer service is the best way for us to differentiate ourselves from competitors and attract new customers. We can offer our customers better service by reducing waiting time in teller lines from an average of six minutes to an average of three. By opening for business at 8:30 instead of 9:00, and by remaining open for an additional hour beyond our current closing time, we will be better able to accommodate the busy schedules of our customers. These changes will enhance our bank’s image as the most customer-friendly bank in town and give us the edge over our competition."

Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.

The customer service division asserts in this memo that improving customer service is the best way for Mammon Savings and Loan to differentiate themselves from competitors and attract new customers. It further mentions possible ways to achieve the same. The presented argument is not without merit. Nevertheless, the argument has many loopholes that need to be plugged in order to make it more convincing.

Improving customer service can be one of the ways to achieve the mentioned goals. That does not, however, make it the best way. The argument fails to address that on what basis improving customer service can be said to be the best way. If it is about attracting customers and differentiating the company from competition, it can also be done by offering better interest rates, well-planned marketing campaigns and providing a wider range of savings and loan options. Besides customer service, a company's brand positioning, marketing communication and product portfolio play an equally important role in helping the company to differentiate itself from competition and attract new customers. An informed decision can be taken only after evaluating all these options. Hence, the argument must categorically state why it thinks that an improved customer service is the best way when compared to other options available to the company.

One of the suggested way is reducing waiting time in teller lines. This effort, however, mandates that the organization increase its daily working hours by one-and-a-half hour. Although such an effort may actually produce the desired results, it will also put extra strain on the existing resources. Such a change is likely to affect the employees work-home balance and would mean more money being paid out to the employees. In terms of the benefits that it would yield, it is not clear if such an effort may be actually worth it or not. May be, the organization would be better off promoting secure e-banking and phone banking for its customers using the same money. It would not only help the organization to accommodate its customer's busy schedules, it would also cost less. The HSBC bank is a good example of an organization that has been doing exactly that to improve customer service at minimal cost.

Concluding, the argument fails to take into consideration alternate ways to achieve the same goals and the possible effect of the suggested changes on the resources and employees. Hence it fails to clearly establish why the suggested way would be the best way to differentiate the company from competition and attract new customers. The argument can be made stronger if it evaluates alternate ways and clearly shows how the suggested course of action is superior to any other way. Failing that, the argument would appear weak and flawed.

Funding School

The following appeared in a speech delivered by a member of the city council:

"Twenty years ago, only half of the students who graduated from Einstein High School went on to attend a college or university. Today, two-thirds of the students who graduate from Einstein do so. Clearly, Einstein has improved its educational effectiveness over the past two decades. This improvement has occurred despite the fact that the school’s funding, when adjusted for inflation, is about the same as it was 20 years ago. Therefore, we do not need to make any substantial increase in the school’s funding at this time."

Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.

The city council member argues that Einstein High School does not need any substantial increase in its funding as the schools educational effectiveness has increased over the past two decades. To support his reasoning, the member presents the increase in the proportion of students who graduated from the school and went on to attend a college or university as evidence. The reasoning is flawed and appears insufficient on several counts.

The primary evidence presented may not be a good indicator of the school's effectiveness due to several reasons. Firstly, proportions in themselves do not mean an increase in numbers. It is possible that the number of people attending the school has actually fallen over the years which in turn has led to an increase in the proportion of students who go on to attend a college or a university. Secondly, the statistics has no point of reference to compare with. The school's effectiveness can be better judged if we can compare it with statistics of other schools in the region. Without these two pieces of information, the primary evidence itself is circumspect.

Even if we assume that the number did increase and the school did reasonably well when compared to other schools, it is very much possible that the improvement may not be due to school's efforts. It is possible that the improvement may have been the result of an increased social awareness about benefits of higher education and individual efforts of the students. If this is true, it would put into question any claimed improvement in the school's educational effectiveness. 

Finally, even if school's efforts have led to improvements, the process itself can be arguably made faster with more funding. The goal should be to have most of the students go for higher education rather than only two-third. The argument is also totally quite about the state of infrastructure and school facilities. More funding would also mean more resources and general improvement in the school's infrastructure and facilities.

Concluding, the presented argument is insufficient and potentially flawed. It can be, however, made stronger if the council member states clearly that there has been an increase in the number of students going for higher education and that the improvement is comparable to other schools in the region. He must also come clean whether the improvement was due to the school's effort or due to a general increase in social awareness about benefits of higher education. Finally, the funds not only improve effectiveness, they also improve infrastructure and school facilities. They can also help to speed up the process of increasing effectiveness. So, unless the school has been able to improve them too over time, it definitely needs funds.

Controlling Drug Abuse

The following appeared in the editorial section of a newspaper:

"As public concern over drug abuse has increased, authorities have become more vigilant in their efforts to prevent illegal drugs from entering the country. Many drug traffickers have consequently switched from marijuana, which is bulky, or heroin, which has a market too small to justify the risk of severe punishment, to cocaine. Thus enforcement efforts have ironically resulted in an observed increase in the illegal use of cocaine."

Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.

The reasoning effectively blames efforts to prevent illegal drugs from entering the country for the increase in the illegal use of cocaine. The observation is flawed on some counts.

Even though it is mentioned that the number of cocaine users has increased, the number of total drug addicts is not discussed. It is very much possible that the number of drug addicts consuming other drugs has come down due to fear of authorities. In the depleted pool the number of cocaine drug addicts may dominate as they are still able to get cocaine. On the other hand, if the number of total addicts has not fallen and they have simply switched to cocaine, then this argument is justified to some extent.

Moreover, the effort to control a disease can sometimes make the disease stronger. But blaming the effort for the transmutation is not accurate. The effort to prevent illegal drugs from entering the country may also have been responsible for bringing drug lords to justice, making it harder for drug cartels to operate and reducing the number of drug addicts. Citing only one statistic to disparage the efforts does not sound convincing.

Finally, there can be an alternative reason to explains the increase. It is possible that for some reason the cocaine has become cheaper to buy. Or that even though the drugs are prevented from entering the country, if they manage to enter then the local law enforcement agencies do not take it seriously. In that case the reason may lie due to an external market force or some other agency. If the argument explores alternate reasons and shows that they are not responsible for the increase in cocaine users, the reasoning can become stronger.

Concluding, the reasoning attributes increase in the number of cocaine users to the efforts of authorities to prevent drug-trafficking. The reasoning conveniently forgets to mention the actual numbers and does not compare them to the number of illegal drug users in the previous years. It also fails to highlight if there were any positive effects that the efforts may have had in terms of busting drug cartels and bringing drug mafia to justice. Neither does it try to show that cocaine usage did not increase due to any other reason except the one mentioned. Without additional information, it seems that the reasoning seeks to disparage the efforts of the authorities. Nevertheless if it categorically mentions concrete numbers, shows that cocaine usage did not increase due to any other reason and states as a fact that the control efforts did not help in any way, the reasoning can be made stronger.