Restaurant Industry Growth

The following appeared as part of an article in the travel section of a newspaper:

"Over the past decade, the restaurant industry in the country of Spiessa has experienced unprecedented growth. This surge can be expected to continue in the coming years, fueled by recent social changes: personal incomes are rising, more leisure time is available, single-person households are more common, and people have a greater interest in gourmet food, as evidenced by a proliferation of publications on the subject."

Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.

The argument projects high growth in the restaurant industry in the coming years. Historic growth and recent social changes are used to back the assertion. 

Without analyzing the actual factors responsible for the growth the historic data cannot be used reliably to make future predictions. The growth may have been the result of many social, economic and political factors: the Government promoting the industry, steady growth of economy, stable Governments, growth in people's income, a population explosion, increase in the number of single-person households and an increased interest in Gourmet food. We need to carefully analyze the past data to ascertain the factors which contributed to the growth and compare them with expected future conditions. Only then we can hope to make a reasonable prediction. 

The writer has correctly identified some of the factors that can fuel the growth in the restaurant industry. However if the economy was to go in recession or if there was a civil war, none of these factors would be able to sustain the growth. Depending on prevailing bank interest rates and markets, surplus money may end up being either spent or invested. Leisure time can be spent in a variety of activities like travel and sports.  Even the interest in gourmet food can translate into sale of recipe books and people taking interest in learning gourmet cooking. The changes are credible and logical in the sense that they can contribute to the growth of the restaurant industry. Nevertheless they may or may not make a difference depending on a lot of factors.  

Hence the argument can be made stronger if it clearly states that the factors listed by the author are the factors that actually contributed to the growth in the restaurant industry in the past and that the current economic and political environment is conducive for future growth of the industry. Without that the line of reasoning is weak and speculative.