Delhi Elections: Myths and Facts

Reading umpteen interpretations of the Delhi elections amuses me. It is funny and surprising how many prominent writers base their writing on 'opinions' rather than actual facts on the ground. Yes, everybody is entitled to have an opinion. However, if that opinion does not agree with reality, it cannot be published as a fact. Fiction and dreams can make good reads, but publishing them as news is irresponsible to say the least. Democracy critically depends on media to perform fact based, real reporting. Like that is going to happen...

Anyway, let us get to myth busting and fact checking. My favorite 5:

Myth 1: All the people rejected BJP and voted for AAP/ people abandoned BJP due to conduct of the right
Fact: BJP got more number of votes than last election. However, all Congress votes got consolidated behind AAP, thanks to their ground work and freebies. People who were supporting BJP did not abandon the party, if the numbers are correct. However, BJP did a poor job of convincing the swing voter. BJP's Delhi campaign was a disaster.

Myth 2: This is a historical election and India has never seen such results, so now AAP will go national for sure
Fact: Nope, sorry to burst your bubble. Many regional parties have attained similar level of results in the past in India. All of them are still regional parties.

Myth 3: AK's anti-corruption/swaraj/charisma led to AAP victories
Fact: A solid ground work by AAP volunteers, given enough time by a clueless BJP Delhi leadership, gave AK enough intelligence to formulate the right mix of promises. He played the game well, avoided confrontational politics, chose candidates carefully, got support from the Congress vote bank, gathered all enemies of NaMo, and spoke nonsense with confidence. It worked. AK played it well politically, and his tactics were excellent. It has, however, nothing to do with AAP's founding ideology.

Myth 4: AK cannot do anything without Modi's help
Fact: Modi's help would be needed for around 30% of his promises. Nevertheless, Delhi has a budget of INR 40,000 crore and clean govenance is always within reach.

Myth 5: It is ridiculous that AAP has a deputy CM and AK does not take any portfolio
Fact: This could prove immensely useful if AK is targeting Lok Sabha. He needs someone to fill the seat of CM once he takes the national stage, so training Sisodia is good strategy. Plus, not taking any portfolio would enable him to escape any blame and keep his reputation intact. It also gives him more time to build his image and unite NaMo's enemies over the next 5 years.

If Arvind Kejriwal Wins Delhi Elections

Much has been made out of Delhi elections by a desperate opposition, who perhaps see Arvind Kejriwal (AK) as their last hope of trying to put down Narendra Modi. Modi is a juggernaut that will not be stopped as easily, no matter if BJP wins or loses Delhi.

For AK, I personally turned against him when he refused to target Congress in the Lok Sabha and virtually fought on an anti-Modi platform. Plus his simplistic but effective rabble-rousing rhetoric, vote bank politics, and confrontational style of operation seriously put me off to the extent that I named him Kanjriwal. With every day he shifts a little more left to the centre, which I think should set the alarm bells ringing for most sensible people in India; especially given that India’s economy has suffered terribly due to years of left leaning politics. Yet I am amazed, surprised, and impressed by so many of my well-educated and well-meaning friends actively supporting AK. I don’t like AK much, but I do admire his ability to command such a high level of loyalty in such a short amount of time. I am not sure how much of that will stay, but it is good while it lasts.

My assessment is that the only reason AK wants to win Delhi elections is to use it as a grand stage to launch his next Lok Sabha (LS) campaign. Now, that is not necessarily a bad aim. However, given his track record so far, I have every reason to suspect that he would go about it in the worst possible way for the country.

If AK wins the upcoming elections, I predict that he will do everything he can to provoke NaMo. If this is about LS 5 years down the line, we will see an AK obsessed with NaMo. He would take every opportunity to be more than a little confrontational, which would seriously impact his ability to get anything done in Delhi. If anything goes wrong, he will blame NaMo, but will take all the credit for anything that goes right. I seriously expect to see a lot of posturing and very little work happening if he becomes the CM. His in-your-face, in-the-media, on dharna style of working will not work. We will just hear conspiracy theories and see lot of nonsense on TV. All the money would be wasted on populist freebies, with no investment for a permanent positive change. The funny thing is that it will be another major strategic blunder by AAP that may actually seal its fate, albeit at cost of 5 years to Delhi. So far AAP has shown that they are good with tactics. However, I am yet to see a comprehensive sensible strategic decision.

However, if AK decides to listen to people outside his comrades circle, he can take another trajectory as well. He can use the next 5 years to actually do something positive for Delhi, to actually demonstrate his ability to get things done. Sure, he can do his dramas and dharnas to get footage and mileage for LS and irritate the hell out of NaMo. At the same time he needs to work to deliver actual results on the ground. To get in businesses, create actual jobs, reduce corruption, and prevent hooliganism from his own cadre.

I will be extremely happy to be proved wrong. After all even Kejriwal’s assessment of not joining hands with Congress did prove to be wrong in the last polls. You never know, sometimes even a leopard can change his spots.