Thursday, February 19, 2015

Delhi Elections: Myths and Facts

Reading umpteen interpretations of the Delhi elections amuses me. It is funny and surprising how many prominent writers base their writing on 'opinions' rather than actual facts on the ground. Yes, everybody is entitled to have an opinion. However, if that opinion does not agree with reality, it cannot be published as a fact. Fiction and dreams can make good reads, but publishing them as news is irresponsible to say the least. Democracy critically depends on media to perform fact based, real reporting. Like that is going to happen...

Anyway, let us get to myth busting and fact checking. My favorite 5:

Myth 1: All the people rejected BJP and voted for AAP/ people abandoned BJP due to conduct of the right
Fact: BJP got more number of votes than last election. However, all Congress votes got consolidated behind AAP, thanks to their ground work and freebies. People who were supporting BJP did not abandon the party, if the numbers are correct. However, BJP did a poor job of convincing the swing voter. BJP's Delhi campaign was a disaster.

Myth 2: This is a historical election and India has never seen such results, so now AAP will go national for sure
Fact: Nope, sorry to burst your bubble. Many regional parties have attained similar level of results in the past in India. All of them are still regional parties.

Myth 3: AK's anti-corruption/swaraj/charisma led to AAP victories
Fact: A solid ground work by AAP volunteers, given enough time by a clueless BJP Delhi leadership, gave AK enough intelligence to formulate the right mix of promises. He played the game well, avoided confrontational politics, chose candidates carefully, got support from the Congress vote bank, gathered all enemies of NaMo, and spoke nonsense with confidence. It worked. AK played it well politically, and his tactics were excellent. It has, however, nothing to do with AAP's founding ideology.

Myth 4: AK cannot do anything without Modi's help
Fact: Modi's help would be needed for around 30% of his promises. Nevertheless, Delhi has a budget of INR 40,000 crore and clean govenance is always within reach.

Myth 5: It is ridiculous that AAP has a deputy CM and AK does not take any portfolio
Fact: This could prove immensely useful if AK is targeting Lok Sabha. He needs someone to fill the seat of CM once he takes the national stage, so training Sisodia is good strategy. Plus, not taking any portfolio would enable him to escape any blame and keep his reputation intact. It also gives him more time to build his image and unite NaMo's enemies over the next 5 years.

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