A recent article in FT about China and the conundrum that it presents to the democracies of the world got me thinking about quite a few things. A few days of serious thinking has yielded some interesting results.
People like to believe that historically capitalistic democratic societies have been the most successful, prosperous, stable, free and just ruling political systems in the world. Stability and prosperity have been the two most important selling points in the quest of exporting democracy. After all, communism never managed to deliver its promises, fascism was a disaster, theocracies have proved to be repressive, most erstwhile socialist countries were marching towards progress (until this recession) by adopting capitalism and monarchies are all but in name now. Democracy never had it better. That is, if we can forget Iraq.
The only exception to this rule is China. The way the Chinese economy is growing; by 2050 it will be double the size of that of a democratic USA. It is also a fairly stable country with an excellent infrastructure and a very shrewd, pragmatic & ruthless foreign policy. All the wishful thinking of China's demise remains that- a wishful thinking. What went wrong?
Nothing, if you ask me. I feel that it is too early to judge the "stability" of capitalistic democracies as they are pretty young. Generally, stability and prosperity can be achieved by any system (democratic or not) if it has:
- a strong & reliable succession mechanism agreed upon by populace(democratic or otherwise)
- a strong armed force & intelligence wing
- natural resources plenty enough to survive and scarce enough to not cause complacency (and not attract marauders looking for a quick buck at your expense)
- fair and fast law system
- strong infrastructure and encouragement for education
- power blocs (judiciary, armed forces, intelligence, legislature, Prime Minister, President, King) that are divided enough to be controllable and united enough to be useful
- open trade and clever, disguised protectionism
- enough propaganda to instil a feeling of nationhood
- ability to deal with adversaries decisively and intelligently
- and finally, full coffers
Ultimately, the discussion about leadership and politics is out of scope and I cannot possibly address all issues. My point, however, is that capitalistic democracies need to look beyond their self-righteousness if they wish to find an answer to the Chinese conundrum.
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