Iran is increasingly finding itself facing intense criticism and an unsupportive populace. The Revolutionary Guard have been firm and the Government's propaganda machine is in overdrive. Yet the tensions simmer.
In my opinion, if the current regime wishes to maintain its vice-like grip on power, it has two examples to copy.
The first is China. It survived Tianamese Square with decisive, brute force - the world opinion be damned. Nevertheless, the repression could not have been successful without a plan to either integrate or neutralize the aggrieved groups effectively. China's growing economic might and propaganda also helped.
Libya, on the other hand, made a U-turn on its policies and re-built its bridges with the western powers, including the "Great Satan". Its bargaining chips were, of course, oil and building the right public image for the leader. Colonel Gaddafi has carefully crafted a statesman like image using a mix of impossible sweet talks (like United States of Africa) and oil money. The logic is simple: nobody may cry for you if you are thought of to be Saddam Hussein-II. Nevertheless, behind the facade Libya remains as dictatorial as ever. In fact, riding on back of current economic crisis and oil money, they (along with Chinese and Middle Eastern funds) have gained a significant influence in the world market.
Iran's regime can do a bit of both if it really wants to achieve its ambition of retaining power and dominating the world stage. In fact, with its large oil reserves Iran can become an oil super-power displacing Saudi Arabia and Libya (in terms of influence). Iran should know that West doesn't give two hoots about democracy as long as it is profitable. After all, the West does deal with China, Libya and Saudi Arabia. And are Burma and North Korea less oppressed than Iraq? A pity they are not oil rich. Nuclear weapons et al will come if Iran can phase out its problems and take them one by one using diplomacy, money and stealth.
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