Demographics and Job Opportunities

 The following appeared as part of an article in the education section of a Waymarsh city newspaper:

"Throughout the last two decades, those who earned graduate degrees found it very difficult to get jobs teaching their academic specialties at the college level. Those with graduate degrees from Waymarsh University had an especially hard time finding such jobs. But better times are coming in the next decade for all academic job seekers, including those from Waymarsh. Demographic trends indicate that an increasing number of people will be reaching college age over the next 10 years; consequently, we can expect that the job market will improve dramatically for people seeking college-level teaching positions in their fields."

Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.

In essence the reasoning seeks to establish a link between the increase in number of people reaching college over the next 10 years to the rise in number of teaching positions and ,hence, to better employment prospects for Waymarsh graduates. The reasoning is a bit far-fetched to say the least.

The writer concedes that throughout the last two decades it has been very difficult for graduates, especially Waymarsh graduates, to get a teaching job in their fields. The reasoning does  not attempt to find a cause behind such statistics. There can be a variety of reasons behind it: the concerned subjects may not be in demand, teaching may need higher or additional qualification or the teaching infrastructure may not be growing due to government's negligence, lack of demand for education or no change in number of college going students. The fact that it is more difficult for Waymarsh graduates may indicate that either the education standards in Waymarsh need to rise or their placement cell is not doing its work properly.

Second part of reasoning can hold some of its ground if the problem is indeed only unchanging number of college going students. Ultimately an increase in their number may push the demand for expanding existing institutions or creating new ones. This in turn can improve the job market significantly. Even if this is indeed the case, it does not absolve Waymarsh of its poor placement record. Since it is already very difficult to get a job for everybody, even if more jobs are available they are likely to be cornered by graduates from better institutes. For Waymarsh graduates getting a job may at best turn from near impossible to difficult which is not a very huge consolation. 

Concluding the reasoning is not very well thought of and fails to make a detailed analysis of the situation. Even in the best case scenario the picture painted is far-fetched and much more rosier than ground realities.