Voting For Mayor

The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper:

"In the first four years that Montoya has served as mayor of the city of San Perdito, the population has decreased and the unemployment rate has increased. Two businesses have closed for each new business that has opened. Under Varro, who served as mayor for four years before Montoya, the unemployment rate decreased and the population increased. Clearly, the residents of San Perdito would be best served if they voted Montoya out of office and re-elected Varro."

Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.

Shrinking businesses imply deteriorating business conditions and herald an increase in unemployment. Unemployment leads to migration and the consequent population decrease. It is pretty much a downward spiral from there. With no opportunities at hand the city may as well become a ghost town. 

It seems that Mr. Montoya's policies (or lack of it) made San Perdito unattractive as a business destination over his 4 year tenure. It may be high taxes, change in the local laws, too powerful trade unions, a deteriorating infrastructure or emergence of another nearby city which offers better opportunities. Any way it shows lack of vision and foresight from the mayor. 

On the other hand Mr. Varro delivered a fall in unemployment and rise in population. That is an encouraging sign and definitely indicates the Varro may be a better choice to halt the city's downward slide.

The reasoning can be made stronger if it is mentioned explicitly that the business too grew under Varro. Decrease in employment and increase in population may as well come from a short-time grand project. Such a project would not only employ people but will also attract people from nearby city and towns. It does not represent any permanent gains as such project may not happen very often.

The reasoning can be weakened if the whole country is in recession right now.

Concluding, I find the section pretty well reasoned. Voting for a mayor based on his performance sounds pretty reasonable to me.