Wishful thinking

The heart is not a friend, my own hands have become foes

The fate seems sealed with no end to woes

As I lie surrounded by darkness, bleeding barely breathing

Thinking about a life unlived, dreams unfulfilled, and promises broken

As life lingers, and pain extends

The mind races on roads that may never be

And I wonder about the million questions that I cannot think of anymore

I do want to fly and float, but here I am… sinking

Dreaming of warmth, o wishful thinking…

Narendra Modi's Masterplan for Indian Economy

While I don't actually know what NaMo is thinking, given his actions to date I think his plan for the economy is on the following lines: 

1. Market India as an investor friendly country to get in FDI
2. Promote "Digital India" to encourage a part of economy that does not need big infrastructure spend, and use it to promote e-governance
3. Get manufacturing in India at least for domestic consumption (including defence) to create jobs and positive buzz. Defence export are less likely to be sensitive to transport costs (the penalty of poor infrastructure) and can boost Digital India
4. Start building the infrastructure required to ultimately enable India to export manufactured goods 

For the first three to be sustainable, reining in bureaucracy to be more business friendly  and judicial reforms to reduce end-to-end judgement times would be needed. We are already seeing steps to make the bureaucracy toe the line. Whether it will work or not is to be seen.

There is no concrete step on judicial reforms, which is a concern. However, as long as NaMo is in power, a compliant bureaucracy in itself will make a world of difference. If Modi goes out of power, most of the gains are likely to be lost without judicial reforms.

These changes are hard, but step 4 will be the hardest. Indian export in manufacturing at global scale is simply not possible without a highly developed infrastructure, including state of the art container ports, express ways for large container trucks, and a functioning fast freight container rail routes. Privatisation of freight rail, strategic layout of roads, and integrated deep water ports are needed to match the logistics advantage for manufacturing in China. To give you a perspective, right now 7 of the world's busiest container ports are in China, who has strategically invested in its infrastructure to brilliantly support exports. Without doing the same Make in India (for export and not just internal consumption) will never be viable, and digital India+defence exports can take you only so far. 

Even if Modi delivers factually, he needs to up his game regarding communication and rein in a lying, agenda based main stream media. It is time that media houses were held accountable for what they publish as factual news. You can't run a lie to tarnish somebody's reputation as main news for 20 hours and then publish the apology as side news for 2 minutes.

Overall, these steps, if executed reasonably, can provide India a significant boost and actually turn it into a world power. However, it is a difficult battle against entrenched socialist practices/culture of non-performance, corruption, and protectionism. Add in a biased, lying, agenda based main stream media and desperate fight for survival by the existing corrupt order, and this gets even more interesting. Of course some of out neighbours would like to see us derail as well. NaMo alone can do only so much. I just hope it is enough...

Thinking about Game of Thrones Season 5

WARNING: if you have not seen Game of Thrones season 5, potential spoilers ahead

I love Game of Thrones for its realism and randomness, that very well mimics the harsh realities of the world and the games of power struggles. With each passing episode, the TV adaptation is finding it more and more difficult to depict Geroge R. R. Martin’s complex Song of Ice and Fire saga. Up until season 4 it was still alright, but season 5 has seen some big time misses that are a big-big let-down. Is budget an excuse? Seriously? Millions of people watch this series. Logically, with such a big established fan-base, funds should be the last concern. I guess it boils down to desire to make a certain amount of profit at all costs, probably due to a badly negotiated contract with HBO. Or maybe it was plain stupidity, hubris, or laziness by the producers. Whatever it was, the quality of season 5 has been the worse till date. As a fan, I am not happy. I would still watch season 6, but it would be so much better if George R. R. Martin comes out with his books instead…

My key gripe is losing the sense of realism and ignoring character build-up, which was not the case earlier. For example, when the sword fell on Ned’s neck, it was the end of story. Similarly the Red Wedding was unapologetically brutal. There were a few reality bloopers, but overall the story held. In the current season, however, I think that the following elements were done pretty badly:

Dorne:

Of course. The cartoonish sand snakes with absolutely no idea about intrigue was the worst possible addition to the show. The last scene when they poisoned Myrcella knowing that Trystane is going to be with Jaimie shows that they are so blinded by the desire for revenge that they are willing to put Trystane in harm’s way. Not very smart, are they? The overall character build up through the season was horrible, and Dorne was easily the worst part of the show.

Unsullied and the Fighting Pit:

Aren’t unsullied supposed to be elite fighters, known for their discipline and fighting in formidable formations? In this season they came across as normal soldiers, even sitting ducks. A little effort to show their class during their ambush in the alley and in the fighting pit would have helped. And while we are talking about fighting pits, what the hell were the Son’s of Harpy thinking? They threw so many spears at Drogon and none at the Mother of Dragons? They even let her key advisors escape once she flew away. Pretty lame and unrealistic.

Sansa:

Until the last moment Sansa had no clue where Littlefinger is taking her. Even then, she enters the situation without a concrete plan, trusting Baelish. And how does it turn out to be? Some people feel she is growing a spine and doing something. To me, it appears that she got short-changed by Littlefinger, and has no clue how to deal with the situation. Ultimately she has been forced to flee by jumping over the wall. Vale story line is lost for sure, and this compromise shows Sansa as a victim rather than a protégé. If that was the intention, then it has worked fine.

Stannis:

Stannis is known as one of the best military commanders in Westros. Therefore the last scene of him blindly walking into an ambush was unreal to say the least. And then, despite being at the front of the army, he ends up in a random jungle away from Ramsay and near Brienne. Seriously? It appears that the show runners were too tired and drained by this time to keep it real.

Other gaffes:

• Tyrion bought by the slaver for a pittance. What happened to the fortune for a dwarf’s cock?
• In the fight between the White Walker and Jon Snow, Snow is dealt many non-lethal attacks even though no such consideration is given to the Thenn. A blip in an otherwise well made battle

एक याद

वह पल थे जिन में हसरतें थीं,
मोहब्बत थी, जुनून था
वह पल थे जब इक नाम में दुनिया सिमट जाती थी,
जब मन्नतों में सिर्फ एक सूरत नज़र आती थी
वह पल थे जिन में हम ने इबादत सीखी,
चाहत सीखी, मोहब्बत सीखी
वह पल थे जब आँखों में नूर था,
दिल में मासूमियत थी, दीवानगी का सरूर था
उन पलों में बेचैन रह कर आँसू भी बहाये,
ज़र्रे-ज़र्रे में ढूँढा उसे, न किसी के करीब आये
वह पल कभी नहीं आएंगे वापिस,
वह पल कभी नहीं आएंगे
इस कसक को याद करेंगे हम भी कभी-कभी,
वह पल जब याद आएँगे

Delhi Elections: Myths and Facts

Reading umpteen interpretations of the Delhi elections amuses me. It is funny and surprising how many prominent writers base their writing on 'opinions' rather than actual facts on the ground. Yes, everybody is entitled to have an opinion. However, if that opinion does not agree with reality, it cannot be published as a fact. Fiction and dreams can make good reads, but publishing them as news is irresponsible to say the least. Democracy critically depends on media to perform fact based, real reporting. Like that is going to happen...

Anyway, let us get to myth busting and fact checking. My favorite 5:

Myth 1: All the people rejected BJP and voted for AAP/ people abandoned BJP due to conduct of the right
Fact: BJP got more number of votes than last election. However, all Congress votes got consolidated behind AAP, thanks to their ground work and freebies. People who were supporting BJP did not abandon the party, if the numbers are correct. However, BJP did a poor job of convincing the swing voter. BJP's Delhi campaign was a disaster.

Myth 2: This is a historical election and India has never seen such results, so now AAP will go national for sure
Fact: Nope, sorry to burst your bubble. Many regional parties have attained similar level of results in the past in India. All of them are still regional parties.

Myth 3: AK's anti-corruption/swaraj/charisma led to AAP victories
Fact: A solid ground work by AAP volunteers, given enough time by a clueless BJP Delhi leadership, gave AK enough intelligence to formulate the right mix of promises. He played the game well, avoided confrontational politics, chose candidates carefully, got support from the Congress vote bank, gathered all enemies of NaMo, and spoke nonsense with confidence. It worked. AK played it well politically, and his tactics were excellent. It has, however, nothing to do with AAP's founding ideology.

Myth 4: AK cannot do anything without Modi's help
Fact: Modi's help would be needed for around 30% of his promises. Nevertheless, Delhi has a budget of INR 40,000 crore and clean govenance is always within reach.

Myth 5: It is ridiculous that AAP has a deputy CM and AK does not take any portfolio
Fact: This could prove immensely useful if AK is targeting Lok Sabha. He needs someone to fill the seat of CM once he takes the national stage, so training Sisodia is good strategy. Plus, not taking any portfolio would enable him to escape any blame and keep his reputation intact. It also gives him more time to build his image and unite NaMo's enemies over the next 5 years.

If Arvind Kejriwal Wins Delhi Elections

Much has been made out of Delhi elections by a desperate opposition, who perhaps see Arvind Kejriwal (AK) as their last hope of trying to put down Narendra Modi. Modi is a juggernaut that will not be stopped as easily, no matter if BJP wins or loses Delhi.

For AK, I personally turned against him when he refused to target Congress in the Lok Sabha and virtually fought on an anti-Modi platform. Plus his simplistic but effective rabble-rousing rhetoric, vote bank politics, and confrontational style of operation seriously put me off to the extent that I named him Kanjriwal. With every day he shifts a little more left to the centre, which I think should set the alarm bells ringing for most sensible people in India; especially given that India’s economy has suffered terribly due to years of left leaning politics. Yet I am amazed, surprised, and impressed by so many of my well-educated and well-meaning friends actively supporting AK. I don’t like AK much, but I do admire his ability to command such a high level of loyalty in such a short amount of time. I am not sure how much of that will stay, but it is good while it lasts.

My assessment is that the only reason AK wants to win Delhi elections is to use it as a grand stage to launch his next Lok Sabha (LS) campaign. Now, that is not necessarily a bad aim. However, given his track record so far, I have every reason to suspect that he would go about it in the worst possible way for the country.

If AK wins the upcoming elections, I predict that he will do everything he can to provoke NaMo. If this is about LS 5 years down the line, we will see an AK obsessed with NaMo. He would take every opportunity to be more than a little confrontational, which would seriously impact his ability to get anything done in Delhi. If anything goes wrong, he will blame NaMo, but will take all the credit for anything that goes right. I seriously expect to see a lot of posturing and very little work happening if he becomes the CM. His in-your-face, in-the-media, on dharna style of working will not work. We will just hear conspiracy theories and see lot of nonsense on TV. All the money would be wasted on populist freebies, with no investment for a permanent positive change. The funny thing is that it will be another major strategic blunder by AAP that may actually seal its fate, albeit at cost of 5 years to Delhi. So far AAP has shown that they are good with tactics. However, I am yet to see a comprehensive sensible strategic decision.

However, if AK decides to listen to people outside his comrades circle, he can take another trajectory as well. He can use the next 5 years to actually do something positive for Delhi, to actually demonstrate his ability to get things done. Sure, he can do his dramas and dharnas to get footage and mileage for LS and irritate the hell out of NaMo. At the same time he needs to work to deliver actual results on the ground. To get in businesses, create actual jobs, reduce corruption, and prevent hooliganism from his own cadre.

I will be extremely happy to be proved wrong. After all even Kejriwal’s assessment of not joining hands with Congress did prove to be wrong in the last polls. You never know, sometimes even a leopard can change his spots. 

Building a Party Constitution

One of the biggest challenge on the road to meritocracy will be building a sustainable organisation/ political party to support this change. Making a rough back of the envelope calculation, I would say the party would need 1 active volunteer for every 100 people in the population, and 1 leader/active participant for every 10 volunteers. Therefore, the core group would be ideally around 1% of the target population. That may appear small, but translates to around 10K active volunteers for a population of 1 million. Based on this, the approximate number of active volunteers & leaders needed to take the movement to a national level for some countries would be as follows:

China:  17.7M volunteers, 2M leaders

India: 12.7M volunteers, 1M leaders

USA:    3.2M volunteers, 300k leaders

Brazil: 2M volunteers, 200k leaders

Russia: 1.5M volunteers, 150k leaders

Japan: 1.3M volunteers, 130k leaders

Germany: 810k volunteers, 80k leaders

France: 660k volunteers, 66k leaders

UK:       640k volunteers, 64k leaders

South Africa: 540k volunteers, 54k leaders

Canada: 360k volunteers, 36k leaders

UAE:      100k volunteers, 10k leaders

Luxembourg: 6K volunteers, 600 leaders

United States Department of Defense, the largest employer in the world, employs 3.2 million people. 

The key point that I am trying to make is that the project would involve building an extremely large organisation, and will be harder for bigger countries. To be sustainable, at the minimum it would need a cohesive ideology that appeals to its members (both emotionally and logically), a suitable organisation structure, an effective fund-raising strategy, an effective succession mechanism, a party constitution, and an effective marketing strategy. 

With this view, I hereby begin the first draft for a sample consitution for a party whose sole motto is the progress of the nation based on the principles of meritocracy. The constitution is a work in progress and I will share it with you once it is in a respectable shape. Please feel free to pitch in your suggestions in the comments below, or just email me.

What's New About What I Say About Meritocracy?

Meritocracy, by any stretch of imagination, is not a new idea as you can learn from this Wikipedia page. Then, how is my contribution different, and why the hell am I spending so much time thinking and writing about it?

Most of the ideas about meritocracy that I have come across mainly focus on the "what" (the wise should rule). There are ways of getting smart people involved in governance structures and administrative services, dating back to ancient China. However, the role of meritocracy is often limited to getting the people but not extended to promoting them or rewarding the right behaviour in the long run. The focus on "how" to enshrine meritocracy as  way of life in a complex human society is missing, and often takes a very idealistic view of human nature. I also think that it does not pay enough attention to making the system "fool-proof" i.e. building in safety mechanisms to prevent degeneration. I hope my work will contribute in the direction of implementing a meritocracy on the ground.

The following writers, in no particular order, have inspired my thoughts: 

Ayn Rand (Atlas Shrugged, The Fountainhead)
Chanakya (Arthashastra)
Niccolo Machiavelli (Discourses on the first decade of Titus Livius, The Prince)
Plato (The Republic)
Robert Greene (48 Laws of Power)
Ronald A Heifetz (Leadership Without Easy Answers)
Sri Sri Ravi Shankar (God Loves Fun, etc.)

I have also relied on the political events that I have witnessed or read about during my own life time and my own experiences. Of course I have used the mighty Google to aid me with my little project :).

मुर्शिद संग रह जाएगा

(Dedicated to H. H. Sri Sri Ravi Shankar)

बस मुर्शिद ही इक डोर है,
नहीं दूसरा कहीं कोई और है,
हर रंग और इक दिन उड़ जाएगा,
बस मुर्शिद संग रह जाएगा

हर रिश्ता सितारों का खेल है,
हर बंधन कुछ लम्हों का मेल है,
इक बस इश्क ही संग तेरे जाएगा
बस मुर्शिद संग रह जाएगा

खेल ज़िन्दगी का खेले 'सवीन',
ख़ुशी, गम सब पाए रंगीन,
इश्क-इश्क करता वो जाएगा,
बस मुर्शिद संग रह जाएगा...